Carver - Bankrupt

I could make poor jokes about 'lean times' but I won't.

The sad news is that Carver have gone bankrupt.

CEO Willem Verheul said that there wasn’t enough of a market for the 50,000 euro vehicle: “We were hoping to sell 300 per year, instead we only managed 200.” The company will lay off nine employees.

However, the 'technology' arm of the company - invoved with the development of a flying version of the Carver! - is still running.




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Tesco - Every Little Helps [Them]

I don't like shopping. Have to do it occasionally, to how willing. And so, on one of those occasions, happened to 'accidentally' find myself in the beer aisle.

Now, maths isn't my strong point, but it didn't take me too long to work this one out.

And it's not the first time I've seen 'bulk buy' deals which actually cost more!



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Hazard Ahead

HAZARD AHEAD BY ANDY HALL
The Hazard Ahead Book contains over 360 pictures of real events on the road. It puts you in the driver's seat so that you can get the get the feel of what is going on ahead and behind you. The pictures comprise text describing the scenes that you see. There are over 20 different subjects and much of what you will be able to put to practice when having driving school lessons.

This book is an excellent training aid and offers the following:

Pictures of actual events
Easy to understand
Grouped into subjects as taught by driving instructors
Wire-bound for easy use
User friendly text
Professionally compiled
Questions at the back of the book
Trade discount for schools and local authorities and for instructors to sell to their pupils


More details here


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Stereo and The Sun

Ill do my best to answer these two from Nikos, but the usual caveat: I'm not expert; use Wikipedia for a more definitive answer!

Ah ha...but does it explain why the sun appears to look bigger when it is closer to the horizon?

My understanding is that this illusion occurs because th esunrise/sunset puts the Sun 'alongside' things we 'know' the size of, rather than the high-noon position where it's 'in space'. False perspective, and all that.





Now, doesn't this second one remind you of something? The 'time to arrival' illusion of the TfL ad?



Are you easily offended, of a quiet nature, or are the young kids around?

If the answer to any of those is 'yes', turn the sound off before playing the next video!



What that shows is 'looming' and also the problems of a 'fixed heading' - no movement across the background until the pilot lifts the plane.



Yes but...rate of change of angle subtended - There must be a stereo image "angle" to this too (ie. depth/distance perception much more difficult for one eyed Gordon Brown compared to Mr Cameron?

There may be some stereo effect - but your eyes are [probably] only a few inches apart - what sort of an angle is involved in looking at an object 50 yards (or more) away? And 100 yards is 3 seconds at 30mph - just the sort of critical distance for you and a driver in a side road.

And three seconds is - coincidentally - all you really have with the Spitfire even when you know where to watch!


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Can the Monkeys Teach?

Thanks for your comments :)

AlistairL has added:

The slight trickiness with your argument is that it undermines any kind of claims about training or coaching, and any kind of book.

Experience is flawed because it is inherantly limited, and any method of imparting experience is also flawed due to limitations in communication.


Yes.

& No.

'Training' (of the road safety variety) is all very laudable - but there's very little proof that it ever does any real long-term good (in reducing crashes and casualty statistics).

So I was quite interested to read this report:

Does Anticipation Training Affect Drivers’ Risk Taking?
Frank P. McKenna University of Reading
Mark S. Horswill University of Queensland
Jane L. Alexander University of Reading

which includes:

Gregersen and Nyberg (2003) considered the conditions under which training might increase or decrease risk taking.

They were examining the effects of two early training programs in Norway, of which one resulted in an increase in accident involvement (skid training) and the other resulted in a decrease in accident involvement (training for driving in the dark).

They speculated that the differences occurred as a function of the method of training.

The skid training involved drivers mastering simple exercises and potentially creating unrealistically positive perceptions of driving skill, which could lead to increased risk taking. In contrast, the training for driving in the dark was designed to demonstrate the dangers and problems of nighttime driving and therefore might lead to a decrease in risk taking.


Now, take that last section: designed to demonstrate the dangers and problems


What's the main benefit of track days for 'training'? We're often told that track days are great because they allow improvement in riding without the risks of road riding.

Now, I'm not suggesting that all training should take place in high-risk environments!

But training must focus on realistic risk identification and management. And it is possible - and easy - to produce that in 'safe' environments - but it requires careful thought, planning, and presentation (and attitude) on the part of the trainer.

But that quoted paragraph also raise my concerns, again, over the 'progress imperative' within much 'advanced' training.


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Do Infinite Monkeys Read the IAM Book?

I like bookshops and libraries. I read loads, mostly fiction, with a sprinkling of 'real' stuff thrown in too, whether it's of the 'How To . . . ' variety (recently I've read about NLP, project management, report writing, and presentation skills) or periodicals such as the BMF's Motorcycle Rider magazine, DIA's Driving, or 'Eureka', an engineering and innovation magazine.

I don’t often get time to visit bookshops, but a few days ago I went to the local branch of Borders, in this case at an out-of-town warehouse-style 'retail park'.

In particular, I was looking for the IAM's new motorcycle book (“How to be a better rider”, written by IAM staff examiner Jon Taylor and motorcycle titles editor Stefan Bartlett), supposedly a radical development of their old (in itself a dramatic development from the original) handbook 'Pass Your Advanced Motorcycle Test' / 'How to be an advanced motorcyclist'.

First reports I've heard (there wasn't a copy in the shop, so I'm still none the wiser!) are that it is distinctly different - and an improvement - in both style and content from the previous book.

The new book is billed as “providing riders in the UK with the definitive guide to defensive riding”.

This set me scurrying for the dictionary - on-line instead of a real book! - to check on the meaning of 'definitive', as that claim concerned me.

The first on-line dictionary I looked at gives (amongst four):

2. Supplying or being a final settlement or decision; conclusive.
3. Authoritative and complete: a definitive biography.

Does it worry anyone else that the book is described as 'definitive' - i.e. 'Conclusive & Complete'?

Isn’t anything that realistically claims to be 'definitive' really going to be exclusive - there must be situations (hazards, risks, experiences, however you like to term them) which will be missed - either because the author(s) didn't think of them or because they had to 'filter' the content to get it down to manageable size? Make a book too big and no-one will buy or read it.

But riding and driving doesn't have those limits, there is no end to what you might face with while travelling. To be fair, the IAM do explain more: “IAM Chief Examiner Peter Rodger said: “The new IAM motorcycle manual is all about guiding principles. It’s not a ‘book of rules’.” Is it being sold as 'the only book you'll need', or will it set limits on its own definitiveness (I probably made that word up)?

The challenge for instructors (or, in the IAM's case, 'Observers'), is to develop the skill of identifying and managing not just the hazards that are 'known about' but the 'new' ones too.

Because, sometimes, it's easy to predict what might be around the next corner - either by small clues ('observation links' - "How can that affect me?"), or because those things quite often happen (e.g. an oncoming driver cutting a corner using some of 'your' lane).

But at other times it seems like those infinite monkeys have been given the day off from sitting at their typewriters (I'm assuming they've not moved onto word processors) attempting to recreate the entire works of William Shakespeare and, instead, have been to told to create pandemonium on the roads by small acts of madness. Because some things you'll see on the roads really are as mad as a box of monkeys.


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Z Line Comment Comment

http://the-ride-info.blogspot.com/2009/10/z-line-comment.html

Hi Nikos!

There is also the stunningly obvious issue that small objects are perceived to be further away!

I can't quite make out whether this paper addresses that.

It might seem stunningly obvious - but it's not that simple.

The psychological 'process' involved is called 'looming' - simply that as things get closer they get bigger. But in a weird way it's not linear.

Have a read of this:
Committee Report: Conspicuity Enhancement for Police Interceptor Rear-end Crash Mitigation

How Do I Know Closing or Relative Speed?
Drivers sometimes drive into the back of slow-moving vehicles, vehicles stopped in the travel lane, or parked vehicles on the side of the road. These crashes occur when visibility is not a problem and intoxication or health factors are not at play. These types of crashes are often attributed to driver inattention but perceptual deficiencies may be intermingled as well.
Olson (1993) and others have analyzed the difficulties people have in judging closing speed. It was mentioned above that a main cue to distance is the image size an object subtends at the driver's point of view. If the image grows larger, we know the object is coming toward us (if we judge we are at a standstill as indicated by other information in the visual flow field) or we are moving toward it (if so indicated by the information in the visual flow field). The rate of change of object size, looming, has been discussed as a primary cue to control braking.
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Perceptual deficiencies in detecting change in object size will contribute to crash risk under certain conditions, e.g., at night.
The rate of change in image size depends on both speed of approach and viewing distance (Olson, 1993). Consider Figure 1, which shows how the visual angle an object subtends at the driver's vantage point changes with viewing distance (See Appendix for explanation). This figure assumes a 6-ft wide vehicle viewed from an initial separation distance of about 1000 ft. The first point to note is that the relationship between object size and distance is highly non-linear. The second point to note is that the image size of the object does not change much for most of the approach, even though it doubles with every halving of the viewing distance. At 1000 ft, the object subtends about 0.006 radians or one-third of one degree of visual angle. At 500 ft, the image size doubles to about 0.012 radians or two-thirds of one degree of visual angle. At 250 ft it doubles again. Because of this nonlinear relationship, drivers may not realize they are closing in at high speed until quite close to collision.




This non-linear effect is also known as the 'time to arrival' illusion, and was the reasoning behind a TfL safety advert:





So, Nikos, now addressed - hope that helps! If not, ask away.
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"Z Line" Comment

An anonymous reader left this comment after reading as far as the second Z Line post:

http://the-ride-info.blogspot.com/2008/08/z-line-2-limits-on-vision.html


Anonymous said...
I really wanted to understand your premise. However, after reading two paragraphs my eyes started to glaze over. I felt I was reading first chapter to a thesis. :-(


To be honest, the writer is correct.

I've been posting on various internet forums about Z Line for several years, and often had to go through the same detail or background, although not always all of it.

So the Z Line set of posts was an attempt to document it all - reason, history, actions, in one place.

Even more correct while being incorrect - because I didn't write that chunk! It's introduced: The following is from material written by Stephen Prower, formerly Research Officer for the BMF


That said, the set of posts is not perfect - and a 2 minute Youtube video would probably cover most of the 'actions' side of things. One day . . .

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Route Planning Sites

Just received from 'Safer Motoways', a useful list of route planning sites:

The AA - Route Planner
Today, the AA is in many ways the same motoring organisation that motorists have trusted since 1905. Our millions of members make us by far the largest motoring organisation, with more dedicated patrols than anyone else. The principal difference these days is that we now provide services not only to get you safely from A to B, but also to help organise your finances and even buy a new or second-hand car. The AA really can offer you everything you need.
http://www.theaa.com/travelwatch/planner_main.jsp?database=B


Drive Alive - Route Planner
Driving holidays in Europe for the independent motorist. Ferries, hotels, holiday homes, camping.
http://www.drive-alive.co.uk/route_planner.php


Google Local
Find directions to local businesses and services.
http://www.google.co.uk/lochp?hl=en


Multimap - Route Planner
Multimap.com is Europe's most popular mapping web site, offering a range of free, useful services to assist with everyday life. Key features include street-level maps of the United Kingdom, Europe, and the US; road maps of the world; door-to-door travel directions; aerial photographs; and local information.
http://www.multimap.com/map/aproute.cgiinput_rt=aproute&startcountry=GB&endcountry=GB


The RAC Group - Route Planner
Six million RAC Members enjoy access to an enormous range of motoring products and services throughout their driving lives, ranging from the familiar and much appreciated roadside assistance in the event of a breakdown to continually updated legal and technical advice and up-to-the-minute travel information.
http://rp.rac.co.uk/routeplanner?advanced=true&fromcity=UK+town+%252F+postcode&tocity=UK+town+%252F+postcode

Recover: Post theft

Recover: Post theft, help the police to locate the vehicle or identify parts if it has been 'broken'.

Tracking - allow police to locate vehicle (and poss. thieves). Various electronic devices can be hidden on your bike which allow the bike to be tracked if stolen.
Tagging - hidden marking e.g. transponders such as 'DataTag'.
Marking - obvious indelible marking of parts. This can be invisible marking such as UV-visible paint or 'Smartwater', or visible marking which can be done easily using letter stamps, or by scratching markings in to plastic panels (paint them with fluorescent paint as an extra deterent. If your bike has any 'distinguishing features', keep a note of them.


The majority of bikes are stolen from the rider's home - but that may not be the only place you park, so you may need to consider how portable your security choices are. The most crop-resistant chains are constructed from 16mm steel - but are not the lightest to carry with you. Try to remove the 'weakest link' from your security - there's little point in using a really strong chain and lock if the chain doesn't secure your bike to anything, or secures it to something which can easily be cropped instead.

Notify: Use equipment which will attract attention - either to the intruder or to the theft.

Notify Use equipment which will attract attention - either to the intruder or to the theft.

Alarms can atract attention over the immediate area - but may be ignored. Some alarms have a 'pager' and give a remote warning of the theft, some dial your miobile phone. As with immobilisers, unsecured bikes can quickly be put in to vans for removal - which will dampen down much of an alarm's siren.

If you keep your bike in an outbuilding or shed there are options available:
With a mains electricity supply, alarms are available which will send a signal through the mains to sound a warning inside your home. Remember that mains lighting and tools could be a great help to a thief if you're unaware of their presence . . .
Alternatively, battery-powered baby monitors could be used in non-mains locations.

NB With anything that notifies you your bike is being tampered with, what will you do when you get the warning? Do you intend to tackle the thieves yourself before the police arrive?

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Prevent - slow the thief

Prevent - slow the thief

Use devices which will cause the thief unacceptable delay, and ensure noisy 'breaking' methods required:

Lock - Disklock, chain, ground anchor/rail/other bike's chain (NB if your bike is in a wooden shed, how easy is it to remove any restraint or anchoring? Also, do you store all your tools in the same building with the secured bike?) 'Cable' locks are of little use as they can easily be cut, and light-weight chains can easily be cropped. Even substantial U-locks can be broken. Be wary of any cheap lock, or any lock which has plastic pieces on the housing, or which has cast sections - this can easily be shattered.

Immobilisers are fitted as standard to some bikes, and can be retro-fitted to others. They're an over-ride which stops the ignition from being hot-wired to be ridden away, but they won't stop a van being used to transprt a bike away.

Ground anchors are usually designed to be 'sunk' in to the ground and concreted in place. If you are unable to fix a ground anchor (perhaps in rented accomodation) a simple, cheap, option is the 'bucket-o-crete' - a cheap plastic storage crate filled with concrete and steel, and with a tube through which a heavy chain can be threaded.


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Deter - stop the attempted theft before it’s started

Deter - stop the attempted theft before it’s started


Options include:
Apply visible markings so that the thief knows the bike will be more dificult to dispose of - even if broken to its component parts.
Keep the bike in a garage or shed. This means the thief can't see the bike or any additional security measures you use.
If you can't keep your bke in a building, consider using a cover to hide the bike from sight.
If possible, park in 'observed' area - overlooked by windows or CCTV
Use high-quality security equipment that a thief will recognise as difficult to remove
PIR-operated lights

Many vehicles are stolen from the owner's home after the keys have been used - sometime the house keys are used for access! Do you keep your keys (both main and spare sets) where they are easy to locate? A simple device used by many thieves is to 'fish' the keys through the house letterbox! Consider hiding keys, or using a key 'safe'. Also, consider keeping registration documents secure.


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Bike Security

Over the next four days, a set of four posts on the subject of bike security - although they're relevant to many other thievable things too! Originally written as a single article.

Four posts, each dealing with one of these aspects:

A four-point checklist allows a quick summary of your bike security:
Deter
Prevent
Notify
Recover


Deter - stop the attempted theft before it’s started

Prevent - slow the thief

Notify - Use equipment which will attract attention - either to the intruder or to the theft.

Recover - Post theft, help the police to locate the vehicle or identify parts if it has been 'broken'.


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